The latest IMF report shows a positive shift in the outlook for the global economy, with the Fund raising its 2026 global GDP growth forecast to 3.3%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from its previous estimate. This optimism reflects the resilience of economic activity in the face of trade disruptions, supported by the easing of tariffs and the accelerating momentum of investment in artificial intelligence technologies.
Global Trade: Overcoming Shocks and Adapting
Pierre-Olivier Gorencca, the IMF's chief economic advisor, affirmed that the global economy demonstrated a remarkable ability to absorb the tariff shocks experienced in 2025. He explained that global companies successfully restructured their supply chains to adapt to US trade policies.
Data indicates that the effective rate of US tariffs has fallen to 18.5%, compared to previous projections of up to 25%, which has eased trade tensions, especially after China redirected its exports towards alternative markets in Europe and Southeast Asia.
Map of Growth in Major Economic Powers
Expectations for major economies showed notable variations, reflecting the nature of each region's internal drivers:
- United States: Growth forecasts for 2026 were raised to 2.4%, driven by massive investment spending on technological infrastructure, data centers, and the semiconductor industry.
- Eurozone: Growth was slightly improved to 1.3%, supported by increased German government spending and positive performance in both Spain and Ireland.
- China: Although its growth is expected to slow to 4.5% compared to 2025, it exceeded previous forecasts thanks to the resilience of its exports, amid warnings about the need to boost domestic demand to avoid future protectionist policies.
Artificial Intelligence: The New Engine of the Economy
Artificial intelligence is emerging as one of the most important factors influencing growth; The IMF expects this sector to contribute about 0.3 percentage points to global growth in 2026. However, the report cautioned against "rapidness risks," noting the potential for market volatility if these investments do not translate into real productivity gains, or if the boom leads to unexpected inflationary pressures.
Inflation and Monetary Policy
Looking ahead, the IMF projects that global inflation will continue to decline, reaching 3.8 percent in 2026. This decline should give central banks more room to adopt accommodative monetary policies (lower interest rates), which would boost investment and support stable economic growth over the medium term.
