How Chile, Australia, and Morocco Will Redraw the Global Investment Map in 2026?
The year 2026 witnessed a radical and unprecedented shift in the philosophy of global investment, as markets moved from an era of total trade liberalization to what is now known as "strategic resource protectionism." This shift was not accidental, but rather an inevitable reaction to the widening and alarming gap between the escalating global demand for vital minerals (especially lithium, cobalt, nickel, and phosphates) and the limited supply capacity. This prompted producing countries to reconsider their strategies and impose new rules of the game. With national security and the green economy at the forefront of the global agenda, major producing countries like Chile, Australia, and Morocco began a series of regulatory measures aimed at imposing strict restrictions on foreign ownership of their mines, stipulating what has become known as the "industrial localization clause" in exchange for extraction rights.
This new stance has not only affected multinational mining companies but has also sent shockwaves through the investment portfolios of major sovereign wealth funds and global asset institutions. These entities realized that the geopolitical risks associated with primary extraction outweighed the potential returns, prompting them to redirect their financial resources toward more resilient and sustainable companies, particularly those involved in battery recycling and technologies supporting the circular economy. This was an attempt to avoid the trap of dependence on countries that now wield their power as a tool for political and economic pressure.
Rare Earth Metals as Fuel for the Fourth Industrial Revolution
To understand the depth of this shift, one must first recognize the immense strategic value that rare earth metals and the minerals essential for battery manufacturing have acquired. In a world racing toward green transformation, electric vehicles (EVs), and renewable energy storage, these metals are no longer mere commodities; they have become the “new oil.” The transition from a fossil fuel-based economy to an electricity-based economy means that the country that controls the raw materials for battery manufacturing effectively controls the key to industrial development in the 21st century.
With global demand for batteries increasing at an astronomical rate, the world has found itself facing a severe supply crisis. The extraction and processing of lithium and cobalt are not proceeding at the same pace as the construction of car factories or wind turbines. This gap between supply and demand has given producing countries a powerful bargaining chip. These countries no longer see themselves merely as "raw material suppliers," but as key partners in the value chain, leading to the emergence of "strategic protectionist" policies.
Producing Countries' Strategies: From Raw Export to Forced Domestication
The most notable development in 2026 was the convergence of efforts by countries of significant strategic importance, such as Chile (the world's largest lithium producer), Australia (the largest lithium producer and a major exporter of rare earth minerals), and Morocco (a key global player in phosphates and an emerging producer of lithium and energy minerals). These countries reached a shared conclusion: exporting raw materials is a waste of national wealth and a reduction in potential economic value.
1. Chile and Australia: Protecting Lithium Wealth
In Chile and Australia, new laws were enacted that refuse to grant exploration or operating licenses to foreign companies unless they commit to building processing plants within the country. Chinese and Western companies can no longer simply extract lithium and transport it to their overseas factories to manufacture battery cathodes. The new requirement is: "If you want our metal, you must manufacture part of the final product here." This measure aims to create high-value-added jobs, facilitate technology transfer, and retain the largest profit margins within the country instead of letting them go to overseas manufacturers.
2. Morocco: An Integrated Model for Phosphates and Lithium
As for Morocco, the focus has been on exploiting its vast phosphate reserves and its strategic geographic location as a gateway to Europe and Africa. Morocco has not only imposed export duties or restrictions but has gone further, pursuing full vertical integration. By leveraging its phosphate reserves (used in the production of lithium-ion phosphate for electric vehicles), Morocco has imposed stringent conditions on foreign investors, requiring them to establish processing plants and related chemical industries. This model transforms Morocco from a mere raw material supplier into an integrated industrial hub, making it an indispensable partner in the global electric vehicle supply chain, and strengthening its negotiating position with the European Union and China.
Portfolio Restructuring: Sovereign Wealth Funds Fleeing Risk
This shift in the policies of producing countries has sent shockwaves through the investment boardrooms and boardrooms of sovereign wealth funds in the Far East, the Middle East, and the West. Investors have realized that investing in traditional, primary-extraction mining companies has become a high-risk investment.
1. Geopolitical Risks and Profit Volatility
The risks are no longer limited to market price fluctuations but extend to the volatility of government policies. A new, arbitrary law, a sudden tax increase, or partial nationalization can wipe out a decade's worth of profits in an instant. Companies that simply drill and export find themselves in a very vulnerable position vis-à-vis resource-owning governments. The "weapon" these countries possess is their legality and sovereignty over their territories, making foreign capital investments in these sectors precarious and uncertain.
2. The Shift Towards a Circular Economy: Recycling Metals as a Safe Solution
As a result of these risks, major sovereign wealth funds and a range of institutional investors have begun withdrawing their investments from primary mining projects and redirecting them towards companies operating in battery recycling and the circular economy.
The logic behind this shift is simple and intelligent:
- Local Source of Resources: Companies specializing in recovering lithium, cobalt, and nickel from damaged batteries do not rely on mines in Chile or the Congo. Their "urban" sources are located in cities and industrial centers.
- Geopolitical Independence: These companies are typically located in consuming countries (such as Europe, the United States, and China), which ensures legal and political stability and shields them from protectionist tendencies in exporting countries.
- Environmental and Economic Sustainability: These investments align with the sustainability (ESG) goals that global markets are pushing for, as recycling is a way to reduce the carbon footprint of mining.
Implications for Global Supply Chains
These “resource protection” policies are leading to a complete reshaping of global supply chains. The old “extract in the South, manufacture in the North” model is no longer viable. We are now witnessing the emergence of new regional models, where each geographic bloc seeks to secure its own resources.
Multinational corporations (MNCs) are now forced to invest in processing plants within producing countries, even though this may increase their upfront costs. They are compelled to transfer technology and build local capacity as a condition for remaining competitive. This situation creates enormous opportunities for industrial development in resource-rich developing countries, but at the same time, it raises the cost of the clean energy transition for the end consumer in the near term.
Furthermore, the increased reliance on recycling will create a huge secondary market for metals. Electronic “scrap” and old batteries will be treated as “urban mines.” This shift will reduce pressure on the natural environment and limit dependence on politically unstable countries, making the metals market more balanced and secure in the long term.
The Future of the Relationship Between Investors and Producing Countries
In conclusion, 2026 represents a turning point in the relationship between global capital and natural resources. Producing countries have broken the taboo of the free market and demonstrated that strategic resources can be a tool of political and economic power.
The next challenge lies in how to manage this transition. While producing countries strive to assert their control and maximize added value, investors seek safe havens away from protectionism. The inevitable outcome of this struggle and negotiation is an accelerated pace of innovation in recycling technologies, the development of alternatives to rare materials, and the construction of more agile and resilient supply chains.
For Morocco, Chile, and Australia, the challenge is to seize this historic moment to build massive industrial bases that extend beyond processing to final manufacturing, thereby transforming their economies from resource-based to technology- and knowledge-based. As for investors, the lesson learned is clear: in a world where strategic resources are being revalued, the future belongs to those who own the technology (recycling) and not just those who own the mine.
