The Tariff Hangover: How global trade is heading towards recession

The Tariff Hangover: How global trade is heading towards recession

We have long lived in an age of globalization, where goods and services flowed freely across borders under the banner of "economic efficiency." But today, most indicators suggest the world is moving toward "economic fragmentation," or what some call "slowbalization." Economic analysis shows this fragmentation is driven by the geopolitical rivalry between the United States and China, with each power striving to build its own economic bloc, relying on its allies and partners. This fragmentation is clearly evident in supply chains. In the past, companies chose where to produce based on cost. Today, regulations and geopolitical concerns play a decisive role. We see a strong trend toward excluding Chinese technology from Western infrastructure (such as Huawei's 5G networks), while China, in turn, is striving for self-sufficiency in semiconductors and artificial intelligence to avoid dependence on Western technology. The result is "investment doubling.&…