The latest forecasts from the US Department of Agriculture indicate that Morocco's citrus sector is poised for significant growth during the 2025/2026 season, driven by a number of positive factors that have contributed to improving the overall performance of this strategic agricultural sector, which is a cornerstone of national agricultural exports.
Among these factors are improved climatic conditions compared to previous years, along with a significant number of trees entering a more productive stage, which has directly resulted in increased yields and improved crop quality. Public policies supporting production and exports have also contributed to fostering confidence among stakeholders and stimulating investment across the value chain.
According to the USDA's annual Citrus Report, this anticipated improvement will strengthen Morocco's position as a leading producer and exporter in the regional and international citrus market, despite ongoing challenges related to foreign competition and fluctuations in global prices and demand.
Strong Growth in Mandarin Production and Relative Stability in Orange Production
The report forecasts that mandarin and clementine production will reach approximately 1.15 million metric tons during the 2025/2026 season, marking an increase of about 4 percent compared to the previous season. This rise reflects the strong performance of this variety, which is considered the backbone of the Moroccan citrus sector, both in terms of production and exports.
In contrast, orange production is expected to remain relatively stable, with estimates indicating around 970,000 metric tons, a slight increase of no more than 1 percent year-on-year. As for lemons and limes, forecasts show annual growth of 6 percent, bringing total production to approximately 48,000 metric tons.
Despite these positive indicators, the report cautions that the expected production levels remain below the historical peak recorded during the 2018/2019 season and only slightly exceed the average production recorded over the last five years, reflecting the continued presence of some structural constraints facing the sector.
A Promising Start to the Season Despite a Delayed Harvest
Regarding the season's conditions, citrus producers reported a generally encouraging start, despite a delay of approximately two weeks in the beginning of harvesting and marketing operations. However, this delay did not significantly affect crop quality, as sizes and commercial specifications remained at good levels, supported by stable external demand, particularly from traditional markets.
Mandarins Lead Exports and Gradual Expansion into African Markets
Mandarins are once again emerging as the most important export variety, with the US Department of Agriculture projecting exports to reach approximately 550,000 metric tons during the 2025/2026 season, an increase of about 2 percent compared to the previous season. This rise is attributed to abundant production and a clear improvement in fruit sizes, especially the commercial sizes required in international markets, such as sizes 4 and 5.
The European Union and Russia remain the primary destinations for Moroccan mandarin exports. However, the report notes a gradual shift in the export landscape, with the growing presence of Moroccan produce in West African markets, particularly Senegal, Mauritania, and Côte d'Ivoire. Conversely, Morocco faces increasing competition from countries like Chile during the early export seasons, requiring producers to enhance their competitiveness in terms of quality, timing, and cost.
Orange Exports Under Pressure from Competition and Promising Development in Industrial Processing
Regarding oranges, export volumes are expected to remain stable at around 85,000 metric tons, due to intense competition from countries like Egypt and Turkey, which benefit from lower production costs and greater marketability at competitive prices.
Meanwhile, the orange juice processing sector is expected to experience significant growth, with orange juice production projected to reach approximately 6,500 metric tons, driven by the expansion of local industrial capacity. This approach will reduce reliance on imported concentrated juice and enhance the added value of domestic production.
Continued Government Support and Special Incentives for Small Farmers and Organic Producers
The report highlighted the pivotal role of the state in supporting the citrus sector, both in terms of production and exports, through a package of measures including financial subsidies, plant health support, and incentives for investment in packaging and processing facilities.
In this context, the US Department of Agriculture noted that the Moroccan government provided special support to small farmers in 2025 through aggregation incentives calculated on a per-hectare basis. Citrus farmers in small aggregated areas benefited from support of $225 per hectare, compared to $150 for medium-sized areas and $75 for large areas.
Organic citrus farmers also received additional support as part of the promotion of sustainable agriculture, amounting to $300 per hectare for small areas, $200 for medium areas, and $100 for large areas, with the aim of enhancing the competitiveness of Moroccan organic products in local and international markets.
